|Presentation Projecting Louisiana's Future: Outlines the population trends in Louisiana parishes for 2010-2030
Report: 2009 Louisiana Net Migration in National and Historical Context
The Louisiana Parish Population Projections Series, 2010-2030 were developed for the State of Louisiana, Office of Information Technology, Division of Administration by Louisiana State University. These are projections of the population by age (five year categories through age 85), race (white, African American/black, and other), and sex for Louisiana Parishes between 2010-2030. The race category ‘other’ includes Asian or Pacific Islanders and North American Indian or Eskimo.
For these projections, the 2005 estimated population for each parish is projected forward in five-year intervals through 2030. The effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita are taken into account.
The projections are designed to present three population scenarios. Rates of birth and death are based on vital statistics data from 2000-2004 and are held constant between 2010 and 2030 across all three scenarios; however, each scenario depicts a different assumption regarding migration patterns by age, race, and sex. These scenarios include:
1) Middle Series [2000-2005 Net Migration Scenario]: In this scenario, the observed rate of migration between 2000-2005 is assumed to remain constant through 2030.
2) Low Migration Series [Half (.5) 2000-2005 Net Migration Scenario]: In this scenario, the rate of migration through 2030 is assumed to be one-half (.5) of the 2000-2005 migration rate.
3) High Migration Series [One and One-Half (1.5) 2000-2005 Net Migration Scenario]: In this scenario, the rate of migration through 2030 is assumed to be one and one-half (1.5) times that of the 2000-2005 migration rate.
Based on long term trends derived from comparisons of the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census, state-level population projections produced by the U.S. Census Bureau, and recent revisions to the 2007 Population Estimates for the New Orleans area, we recommend the following population projections scenarios:
1) Orleans, Jefferson, and St. Bernard Parishes: Use the “High Series” for 2010-2020 and the “Medium Series” for 2025-2030.*
All Other Parishes: Use the “Middle Series” for 2010-2030.
Statewide: Use the “High Series” for 2010-2020 and the “Medium Series” for 2025 and 2030.*
With the exception of Orleans, Jefferson, and St. Bernard Parishes, the “Low” and “High” series provide the user with the necessary information to evaluate what population changes may occur given a marked increase or decrease in net migration. Users should carefully assess past and current population trends for a given parish before using the “High” or “Low” series as a likely population scenario for planning purposes. We recommend the “High Series” in certain time periods for Orleans, Jefferson, St. Bernard, and the State of Louisiana to account for a revision to the 2007 Population Estimates that occurred after the development of these projections (see footnote).* For a more in-depth description of the Louisiana population trends observed and a technical description of the methodology used to generate the projections, read the full technical report. State-level and parish-level population projections are provided below.
On January 13th, 2009 the U.S. Census Bureau accepted challenges by Orleans, Jefferson, and St. Bernard Parishes to the 2007 Parish Population Estimates (see: http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/2000s/vintage_2007/07s_challenges.html). The revised estimates for these parishes added 13,613 persons to St. Bernard, 48,989 to Orleans, and 16,819 to Jefferson. In total, these adjustments resulted in an additional 79,421 persons to Louisiana’s total population in 2007. These revisions by the U.S. Census Bureau have not been incorporated in the projection series because revised 2007 parish estimates data by age, race, and sex needed to project the population will not be available until the next parish population estimate release in August, 2009. Because of this revision users should follow the recommended guidelines provided above when determining which projection series to use.